A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
