Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
